Much Cooler By The Weekend

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WARMER TODAY: Sunshine returns in full force today, and temperatures will rise into the low 80s, about seven degrees above average for mid-October in Alabama. The GFS continues to be way too aggressive, showing mid to upper 80s. That is pretty much in la-la land, despite the strong upper ridge across the Southeast U.S. Pretty much the same story tomorrow; lots of sun with a high between 80 and 83.

LATE WEEK COLD FRONT: The 00Z GFS is faster with the surface cold front later in the week, suggesting showers moving into Alabama during the afternoon hours. For now, we are mentioning a chance of showers Thursday night into Friday with that front, and I won’t change the timing until I see the 12Z run. I still don’t expect this to be a big rain event; rain totals will probably be a quarter-inch or less, and all of the rain will be gone by high school football games Friday night.

WEEKEND CHILL: Models are trending colder for the weekend, and our forecast will do the same. You have to respect the big mass of cold air out west, lots of teens and 20s out there this morning with a good snow cover for the mountains. The GFS is now printing a high of 69 for Birmingham Saturday, with a low of 49 Saturday morning, and 46 Sunday morning. Sounds good to me, and those numbers might come down even more in coming days as the cool air gets closer. No doubt this will be the coolest air so far this season, and colder valleys have a good chance of reaching the 30s at daybreak Sunday with some scattered light frost not out of the question.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The 00Z GFS is trending drier next week; it has pretty taken the mid-week rain event off the board, and shows only a minor rain possibility toward the end of the week. This, of course, is in voodoo land, so this could change again. And, confidence is low in any specific solution at the end of the month as model madness rules.

TROPICS: Lots of action out there; watch the Weather Xtreme video for graphics and details. Nana is falling apart in the Central Atlantic; TD15 in the East Caribbean; that is headed northeast. It should move over Puerto Rico as Tropical Storm Omar, and has a chance of becoming a hurricane in the open Atlantic by the end of the week. This is no threat to the U.S. mainland.

And, another disturbance is over the West Caribbean; this one will drift into Central America and won’t have much of a chance to get its act together.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Todd Foisy of the NWS in Anchorage, AK is our guest this week; Brian will post the show notes shortly.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

I am off to Tuscaloosa today to speak to the Tuscaloosa Rotary Club…. then back to the office and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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