Not Much Rain Today

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ON THE MAPS: Our upper low over Texas is beginning to move east; this morning it is near Abilene, and it is producing lots of rain and storms over Southeast Texas and the adjacent coastal waters. Here in Alabama, the sky will become mostly cloudy today, but it still looks like most of the showers will remain west of here. Some rain is possible over the western third of the state this afternoon and tonight, but showers east of I-65 should be few and far between. We will climb back into the upper 70s today.

The upper low will really fizzle out as it moves east tomorrow; but it still should bring a slow increase in the number of scattered showers and storms. Then, tomorrow night and early Friday, a cold front moves through, and that might offer our best coverage of rain in the general period from 5:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Friday. Rainfall amounts could be as high as 1/2 inch, but I am afraid many spots will see less than that, which is not good for a rather parched Alabama. Birmingham’s rain deficit for the year is now over six inches.

The rain will end from west to east Friday morning as cooler air slips into the state. The models are trending colder again for Friday and the weekend; the NAM is suggesting the high here on Friday will be only around 60 degrees with a cool north breeze, and it just might be correct. The weekend will be dry, but much cooler. The GFS is printing a high of 60 on Saturday, with 65 on Sunday. It still looks like the coldest morning will come early Sunday with lows generally in the mid 30s, but the colder valleys will have a good chance of a light freeze.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The GFS builds an upper trough over the Southwest U.S. next week, with an upper ridge over the Southeast U.S. That general pattern continues through the end of March, and once again that would suggest warmer than normal temperatures here with below normal rainfall. The good news is that we don’t see any significant severe weather threat for Alabama for the next 10 to 15 days.

AT THE BEACH: A pretty good chance of showers and storms for the Gulf coast headlines the forecast for tomorrow, but Friday and the weekend should be dry. Due to the cool ocean, along the immediate coast highs will be only in the upper 60s. We noted that our SKYCAM site in Gulf Shores (at the Phoenix All Suites) measured a high yesterday of only 68 degrees, while Birmingham reached 80. This is due to the sea surface temperatures, which are in the mid to upper 60s. A little brisk for a swim…

WEATHERBRAINS: In case you missed it, this week’s new WeatherBrains episode looks at the new NWS polygon warnings and much more. Listen to the show on the web, or on iTunes.

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Another very busy day ahead… I will be doing meteorology programs today at Oak Mountain Classical School, and Valley Elementary School. But, those two schools are very close to our weather office at ABC 33/40, and I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon. I am also working on a flash video consisting of the many still images I took down in Enterprise Monday; I will try to post that later today as time allows. Enjoy the day!

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