Big Rain Event Friday; Much Colder Next Week

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Interesting to watch the major October winter storm winding up over the nation’s mid-section this afternoon. Goodland, Kansas is reporting 42 degrees with a north wind gusting to 55 mph. Heavy snow is expected to develop in coming hours, and a blizzard warning is in effect for this region through tomorrow morning. White-out conditions are forecast with potential for power outages due to the combination of wind and heavy, wet snow.

HERE IN ALABAMA: Clouds will increase in advance of the storm system tomorrow, with the possibility of showers moving into West Alabama during the afternoon. Rain will become widespread tomorrow night and Friday as strong dynamics come into play. The 12Z NAM is printing 0.77″ for Birmingham, while the GFS similar with 0.81″. We will forecast around one inch of rain statewide, with the most widespread rain coming from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 p.m. Friday night. The good news is that models are moving the rain out faster, and there now seems to be a much better chance that the rain will be over in time for high school football games Friday night. But, the fields will be very, very wet.

Some thunder is possible Friday, but the boundary layer will be cool and stable thanks to cooler air moving in from the east (the ole wedge). Looks like we will be in the 50s all day as the rain falls.

OUR WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly sunny on Saturday as a dry slot moves into the state, and Sunday should feature a good supply of sunshine. Looks like a high in the mid 60s Saturday, with temperatures reaching 70 Sunday.

BIG CHILL NEXT WEEK: The GFS and the ECMWF are now in very good agreement that the coldest air so far this season will blow into Alabama early next week with a very deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. Looks like we won’t get out of the 50s on Monday with a very chill north wind, and we are headed for the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The GFS is suggesting that Wednesday morning might be the coldest morning with potential for a freeze for colder valleys, and widespread frost everywhere else. The air will be dry and the first half of next week will be rain-free.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: A few showers may be around for the Thursday night high school games with temperatures falling through the 60s into the upper 50s. Again, the latest data suggests that the rain will be mostly over for the high football games Friday night; temperatures will be in the 50s during the games. In college football, Auburn is at West Virginia with a 6:30 p.m. kick off in Morgantown tomorrow on ESPN. Should be clear and chilly with 54 at kick off and in the 40s by the second half. Two games here in Birmingham with the Citadel at Samford for homecoming and also the Magic City Classic at Legion Field with a 2:30 kick off between Alabama A&M and Alabama State. It should be mostly clear for both games with about 65 at kick off and 50s in the 4th quarter. Alabama is in a crucial game in Knoxville at 6:45 p.m. Saturday on ESPN. There may still be a slight chance of some rain in the vicinity with 50s at kick off and about 46 when all of the Tennessee fans hop in their boats and take off. That is a unique sight.

PRIME TIME SPECIAL: Join us on ABC 33/40 Friday at 7:00 for “Southern Skies of 2008″… this is our annual fall severe weather special. You will see some great Alabama weather stories, and learn more about getting your family ready for our fall tornado season, which begins in only 10 days!

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I had a great time seeing the kids at Winfield Head Start this morning… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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