A Chilly, Soaking Rain Ahead

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GOOD SOAKING AHEAD: The combination of a major storm over the nation’s mid-section and a flow of cool air from the east will set the stage for a widespread, chilly rain event for Alabama during the next 36 hours. Rain is moving into West Alabama ahead of schedule this morning, so some light rain could fall this morning west of I-65, and a shower is possible just about anywhere this afternoon. Still looks like the most widespread rain will fall from around 6:00 this evening through 6:00 p.m. tomorrow.

HOW MUCH? Models have become a little more aggressive with rain totals… the NAM is printing 1.29″, while the GFS is at 0.91″ (these values are for Birmingham). I still think our forecast of one inch of rain is safe, but some spots could get more. The rain will fall steadily, and should be very beneficial for our state. I really don’t expect much thunder due to the cool boundary layer; surface temperatures will hold in the cool 50s all day tomorrow as the rain falls.

THE WEEKEND: The sky will become sunny Saturday with a high in the mid 60s, and Sunday looks like a beautiful day with a high around 70 and sunshine in full supply.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Tonight we have a Thursday night special; Auburn is in Morgantown, WV to take on West Virginia (6:45 on ESPN); the sky will be clear with a kickoff temperature near 54 at kickoff, dropping into the 40s during the second half.

For the high school football games tonight, some rain is likely with temperatures in the 50s. For the games tomorrow night, there is a pretty decent chance the rain will end before the games begin, but the fields will be very wet and sloppy from the all-day rain. Temperatures tomorrow night will be in the 50 to 55 degree range.

Two games here in Birmingham with the Citadel at Samford for homecoming and also the Magic City Classic at Legion Field with a 2:30 kick off between Alabama A&M and Alabama State. It should be mostly clear for both games with about 65 at kick off and 50s in the 4th quarter. Alabama is in a crucial game in Knoxville at 6:45 p.m. Saturday on ESPN. We have taken the chance of rain out of the forecast; it now looks like the sky will be mostly clear with temperatures falling from near 55 at kickoff into the 40s by the fourth quarter.

COLD BLAST NEXT WEEK: The coldest air so far this season will blow into Alabama early next week. North winds will pick up on Monday, and even with sunshine we most likely won’t make it to 60 degrees. Morning lows will drop into the 30s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning; at this point it looks like the coldest morning will be Wednesday with a clear sky and light wind; at that time a widespread frost is likely, and the colder valleys across North Alabama will drop into the mid to upper 20s. There should plenty of frost on those Halloween pumpkins.

PRIME TIME SPECIAL: Join us on ABC 33/40 tomorrow night at 7:00 for “Southern Skies of 2008″…. this is our annual fall severe weather special. You will see some great Alabama weather stories, and learn more about getting your family ready for our fall tornado season, which begins in only 9 days!

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.

I am headed to Fayette this morning for a weather program…. I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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