Radar Looks Busy, But Most Precipitation Not Reaching the Ground; Storms Tuesday

If you look at the radar this morning, you might say, “uh oh, rainy day” ahead for us here in Central Alabama. But not so fast my friend. Yeah, the radar looks busy with what appears to be moderate rain over western Alabama.

But moderate is the new light and light is the new sprinkles in today’s atmospheric setup. The airmass over Alabama is nearly bone dry, and the flow around high pressure over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic is just not southerly enough to moisten us up yet.

A little light rain will reach the western counties, in places like Hamilton, Vernon, Carrollton and Livingston. Sprinkles might reach as far east as I-65.

Highs in Northwest Alabama will be in the lower and middle 60s, but the rest of the area should be mainly in the upper 60s. Montgomery and Troy might hit 70F. Overnight lows will be in the 50s with just a few sprinkles around.

Moisture levels will be increasing on Monday as low pressure takes shape over the Northern Plains and high pressure moves far enough east to allow our winds to become more southerly. Again, there could be a few sprinkles, but the only real rain chances will be limited to Northwest Alabama. There will be enough breaks in extensive cloudcover to allow the mercury to reach the lower 70s in many spots.

A cold front will move into Northwest Alabama Tuesday afternoon and will push southeast. Precipitable water values will rise along with dewpoints, making moisture available for storms. Instability values will be in the 500-1,000 joules range by afternoon, and paired with weak overall wind shear, we’ll only manage a few strong storms and little severe weather. The factors are just not there in quantity. But having said that, when it comes to storms in Alabama, we always expect the unexpected.

There could be some decent rainfall with the high moisture values on Tuesday, especially west of I-65. Areas west of I-65 could pick up over an inch of rain, with amount quickly tapering the further east you go.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS