March Heat Wave Rolls Along

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

VERY DRY AND VERY WARM: Yesterday’s official high in Birmingham was 87 degrees; that was 18 degrees above the average high of 69, and within one degree of the record high for March 25, 88 degrees which was recorded in 1907. In a month when we normally receive over six inches of rain, the total this March is only 1.01″, and we have seen measurable rain on only two days (March 1 and March 15). For the year, Birmingham’s rain deficit is now over 8 inches (8.05″). Needless to say, we really need some rain. The good news is that we should get some beneficial rain, and maybe lots of it. But, the bad news is that we will have to wait several more days before it begins.

SHORT TERM: The upper level system around the Rio Grande Valley of Texas will finally be kicked out today in response to a few upper trough moving into the western U.S. But, it will weaken greatly as it moves northeast. The upper ridge over the Southeast U.S. will weaken a bit, and considering the high dewpoints and warm afternoon temperatures, we will probably begin to see a few isolated afternoon showers over Alabama today, tomorrow, and on Wednesday. But, they will be few and far between, and most communities will remain dry. The best chance of showers will be over the northeast part of the state, but even there we aren’t expecting much. Daytime highs will come down just a bit; we are looking for mid 80s today, and low 80s tomorrow and Wednesday.

FIRST SHOT AT SOME NEEDED RAIN: Another deep upper trough will move out of the western U.S. later this week, and this one has the potential to bring some badly needed rain to Alabama. At this point, it looks like the best chance of rain and storms will come this Saturday, March 31. And, the GFS hints at good instability with a negatively titled upper trough, which will mean the chance of strong to severe storms. The rain exits the state Saturday night, and for now Sunday (April 1) looks dry.

DEEPER INTO APRIL: A pattern change seems to be ahead for April, and the GFS shows some excellent opportunities for rain and storms around April 4 and April 8. Both of those rain events should be followed by a sharp change to colder temperatures. Despite the recent warmth, don’t forget we can (and usually do) have some pretty decent cold snaps in April. While the average date of our last freeze is March 23, we have seen freezing temperatures here as late as April 23.

I sure enjoyed the long weekend over at Mississippi State; you can scroll down below and see some pictures of the big meals we shared, but it was wonderful seeing old friends (and meeting new ones) in the meteorology community at the annual Southeast Severe Storm Symposium. Thanks to everyone in the MSU meteorology program for putting the event together.

Back on the road today; I will be headed to Etowah County to speak to the students at Ivalee Elementary School this morning. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon!

Category: Uncategorized