Coldest April Temperatures On Record Ahead

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COLDEST APRIL AIRMASS ON RECORD AHEAD: This is not what growers want to hear. The model numbers are still trending downward for the weekend… here is a look at the model output statistics for Birmingham; these are forecast morning lows from the GFS:

Tomorrow morning 26 (interesting to note that both the GFS and the NAM show a daytime high only in the upper 40s)
Sunday morning 23 (the NAM also is printing 23)
Monday morning 27

We can sit here and fight and fuss about the numbers, but that is somewhat silly since actual, observed lows will vary greatly from neighborhood to neighborhood due to micro climate issues. Elevation, proximity to urban areas, wind, and cloud cover all play a big role. Actual lows all three mornings will probably vary from 20 to 32, with the colder temperatures in the valleys and protected areas.

It does appear the Sunday morning will be the coldest, assuming high clouds from a rain mass over the western Gulf of Mexico don’t move over North Alabama. Upper air winds, most likely, will push the clouds from that big blog of rain to the east, and not to the northeast.

We have the potential to be below freezing for 3 to 6 hours all three mornings; some of the coldest spots might even remain below freezing for up to 8 hours Saturday night and Sunday morning. This is going to be a damaging freeze, and commercial growers will have three sleepless nights ahead. We all need to say a prayer for them… they are very good at controlling freeze damage, but this kind of air is unprecedented in April. If we drop to 23 early Sunday, that will easily beat the old record for the coldest April temperature in Birmingham: 26 on April 11, 1973.

NEXT WEEK: We begin to warm up Monday afternoon, and wet weather returns at mid-week. The 00Z run of the GFS brings the main band of rain and storms through here late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, but the model is often too fast at this stage of the game. We will continue to highlight a good chance of rain and strong storms during the day Wednesday. It remains to be seen if the air can become unstable enough for a severe weather threat. Then, the GFS shows another good rain event at the end of the week, on Friday April 13 (one week from today).

ANOTHER COLD SNAP: Another shot of cold air rolls in here around April 17-18, but not as cold as the air we will deal with over the weekend. At this point we are not expecting freezing temperatures with that one.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. Many new articles have been posted over there… there is always something interesting to read.

I will be attending a Good Friday service today at Hunter Street Baptist at midday… then on to the office where I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30!

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