Severe Weather In Our Future?

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First off a big thank you to Brian Peters, Ashley Brand, J.B. Elliott, and Bill Murray for handling the Internet/TV/Radio duties while I was on vacation. The time off was greatly appreciated…. amazing what a little sleep and rest will do. See some pictures from our winter beach trip here.

BUSY DAYS: Today’s Weather Xtreme video ran almost ten minutes because there is so much to discuss… including a severe weather event late tomorrow and tomorrow night, and potential for very cold, Arctic air in here next week, and maybe some snow along the way. Check it out when you have a few minutes… it always helps explain what I am writing here with all those nice graphics.

TODAY: A very sharp cold front is stretched out across Alabama this morning; it seems to be a little south of I-59. To the north, Muscle Shoals is down to 42, while to the south of the boundary Montgomery is 18 degrees warmer with 60. The front has lost it’s southward push, and will move northward later today as a warm front. A few periods of rain are likely today, with everyone south of the front rising well into the 60s. We should note the front brought some healthy rain amounts to the state overnight; our Skywatcher in Cottondale reports 2.03″ since midnight.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: All of Alabama will be in the warm sector tomorrow, and with a vigorous upper trough approaching, the stage is set for the potential for severe thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. The heaviest rain during the day tomorrow, most likely, will be north of the warm front, across North Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley region of North Alabama, where flash flood watches have been issued. Down here, around the I-20/59 corridor, I would not be shocked to see a few interval of sunshine, pushing temperatures close to 70 degrees.

At this point, it looks like the main window for severe weather will come from about 4:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight. It is your typical low CAPE high shear event we can see in January; instability will be very limited, but the atmosphere will be highly sheared. Forecast soundings suggest the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes; damaging winds are also possible in the stronger storms. If we do see some sun during the day with surface temperatures nearing 70, that could enhance instability and make for a more significant severe weather threat.

SPC has the southern two-thirds of Alabama in a slight risk for severe weather, mainly for areas along and south of U.S. 278, or south of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. You know what I am about to say… when it comes to thunderstorms in Alabama, expect the unexpected, so stay tuned for updates.

MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY: Looks like Wednesday will be a day with temperatures falling into the 40s with a brisk north wind. There could be a little lingering light rain during the morning; maybe even a few snow flurries north of Birmingham up toward the Tennessee Valley, where they could hold in the 30s all day. The models don’t seem to have a clue as to the cold nature of the air just north and west of Alabama. A good example right now is out in the Texas Hill Country, where freezing rain and ice is becoming problem; most model guidance shows them to be in the 40s now, over ten degrees too warm.

REST OF THE WEEK/OUR WEEKEND: Thursday and Friday look cool and dry; a surface front will bring a chance of showers on Saturday, followed by cool and dry air on Sunday. For now the rain event on Saturday looks relatively minor with generally light amounts for Alabama.

ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEK? Long time readers have known that we have highlighted the negative NAO flip for weeks here, and potential for much colder air for Alabama at some point this month. Sure looks like the gates to the Yukon could be open next week for the eastern half of the nation. Yep, the 06Z GFS suggests a snow event for Alabama one week from tomorrow, which is certainly possible, but the screaming message is the possibility of a true Arctic connection and some very cold air for our state next week. Let’s get the event tomorrow night out of the way and we can focus on this; watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics.

VOODOO LAND: Also, we note the NAO flips back into positive range again toward the end of the month, with warming conditions for the eastern U.S. likely at that time after next week’s big Arctic blast.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new episode tonight; it should be available by 10:30.

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We are now back on the regular two a day schedule, so the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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