Dry Through Wednesday

*** Note that while I was preparing the Weather Xtreme Video, NHC has named the circulation just offshore from Tampa as Tropical Storm Emily ***

The satellite view of the Southeast US showed clear skies this morning though some passing cirrus clouds may dim the sunshine a little during the day. Starting out fairly cool for late July with the morning lows in the 60s. Lots of sunshine but with a northeasterly wind should produce highs around 90 degrees.

The upper trough that brought the strong push to take the front last Friday well into the Gulf of Mexico will weaken over the next several days. While we do maintain a northwesterly flow aloft, the surface flow will gradually come around to the south late Wednesday and Thursday bringing the moisture levels back up. This means we will need to forecast a chance of showers for Thursday while high temperatures will remain close to the 90-degree mark.

A strong upper short wave comes into the western Great Lakes area on Thursday moving to the eastern Great Lakes area by Saturday. This will help to reinforce the upper troughiness over the eastern portion of the country. At the surface, a surface low in eastern Iowa will move to just north of New York state on Saturday with a front dragging down into the Southeast US on Friday and Saturday. This front does not appear to have the necessary momentum to travel all the way to the Gulf of Mexico as the latest front did, so it will wash out across Central Alabama on Sunday and Monday. With the surface front in the area and without significant drying, we’ll have to maintain low chances for showers. Temperatures will remain slightly below seasonal averages with highs in the middle and upper 80s for the latter part of the week and into the weekend thanks to the presence of additional clouds and showers.

The tropical Atlantic has become a tad more active with the development of Tropical Depression Six just west of Tampa, FL. Shear in the vicinity of the depression is fairly strong so there is little likelihood for development before it moves ashore on the Florida West Coast. NHC projects it moving into the Southwest Atlantic as a depression, but due to the presence of the Gulf Stream, we’ll need to watch for additional development. Further east in the South Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather was chugging along to the west with little additional development expected over the next couple of days.

Great weather will be occurring for the beach areas of Alabama and Northwest Florida. It will be dry through Tuesday with chances of showers returning by Wednesday and into the latter half of the week ahead. You can expect to see highs in the middle and upper 80s. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Own Your Summer specials now!

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS maintains the pattern of a trough over the eastern half of the country. The latest run breaks down this pattern by the 15th of August as the upper ridge to the west migrates into the Central Plains states. This would signal an increase in the heat for the Middle Mississippi River Valley and possibly for Alabama.

Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

Just a reminder that James Spann is on vacation this week, so we will be on a one-a-day schedule with the Weather Xtreme Videos until August 6th. You can catch the latest weather forecast later today on ABC 3340 News at 4, 5, 6, and 10 pm as I pinch hit for James. Enjoy the feel of the drier weather for the next couple of days. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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