We Need Some Rain

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

The latest data from the National Drought Mitigation Center show an “extreme” drought over parts of the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, with “severe” drought conditions south to a line from Butler to Clanton to Anniston. The rain deficiency for Birmingham for the year is now over ten inches (10.27″), with even drier conditions to the north. Birmingham’s rain total since January 1 is 7.00″, while Tuscaloosa is even drier with 6.56″. So… bring on the rain…

TODAY/TOMORROW: Moisture levels will be on the increase across Alabama today, and a few showers could show up this afternoon, especially over the western third of the state, as an upper air short wave now over Texas approaches. Showers will be more likely tonight, and a few scattered thunderstorms might even be involved tomorrow. The NAM is now showing 0.75″ for Birmingham through mid-week, while the GFS is much drier with 0.39″. The rainfall distribution will not be even due to the scattered nature of the showers. The warming trend continues; we rise into the 60s today, and will be close to 70 by tomorrow afternoon.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The warming trend continues; although the 00Z GFS is coming in a little cooler; it suggests a high in the mid 70s on Thursday, with low 80s on Friday. Both of these days should be rain-free as the main weather action will be off to the west. A strong trough will bring the chance of a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to parts of East Texas, East Oklahoma, Arkansas, and parts of Louisiana Friday.

THE WEEKEND: The big spring storm will roll into Alabama on Saturday with rain and storms likely. At this point, it looks like the primary risk for our state will be from a squall line that could feature damaging, straight line winds. The upper trough will be positive tilt, and the primary surface low will be well to the north, near Detroit. But, the air should be unstable and wind fields will be strong. The 00Z GFS suggests the squall line will roll through here in the 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. time frame. Unfortunately, the line will be moving rather quickly, which should limit the amount of rain we see. But, amounts of one-half to one inch will be possible on Saturday.

We will have a quick pop of colder air on Sunday; a very chilly north breeze will develop and we won’t make it out of the 50s. And, Monday morning will be cold. The GFS is suggesting a low of 37 for Birmingham early Monday morning, but the colder valleys will be very close to having a light freeze, and some frost will be possible if the wind goes calm.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The GFS shows the next chance of rain around Thursday April 19, but the system doesn’t pose a severe weather threat if the current run is correct. Toward the end of the month, the model is showing the main band of westerly winds aloft a little north of Alabama, and shows a stalled front down here that will have the potential for some good rain totals. But, you know the deal, that is pure voodoo at this time.

WEATHER BRAINS: I had to miss last night’s show, which is now available on iTunes and the web, but I sure look forward to listening to it. The crew has an interview with Dr. William Gray, one of the greatest minds in our science… it features his thoughts on the coming hurricane season.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.

I am off to Pinson this morning to speak to the kids at Pinson Elementary; I will be back in the office early this afternoon, and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30!

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