Shower Chances Return Thursday

The sky across Alabama has become mostly cloudy overnight and radar even indicated some light patches of precipitation. However, a quick peek at the sounding from the Shelby County Airport showed that we still have a significant dry layer aloft so most of the precipitation will be evaporating before reaching the ground. It’s possible that some spots might see some sprinkles, but it doesn’t seem very likely that anyone will get more than a couple of hundredths of an inch. The increased cloud deck should provide a pretty good filter for the sunshine keeping highs today in the 84 to 87 degree range.

A weak short wave at 500 millibars was responsible this morning for the clouds and the sprinkles. That weak trough will pass on by Thursday as another somewhat stronger trough moves into the western Great Lakes. A surface low will form over Iowa on Thursday and move Michigan by Friday dragging a cold front into the Southeast US. The GFS has trended somewhat slower with the front, but it still appears likely that with moisture levels up and the presence of the frontal boundary, showers and thunderstorms will be fairly numerous on Friday. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s.

The upper trough moves into the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday, but over the Southeast US the upper flow goes pretty close to zonal. This means that the push to bring the front further south will be lost, so the front is likely to stall out over North Alabama. Without the benefit of a frontal passage and with the front stalled close by, we should see a fairly good chance of showers and storms all the way into the middle of next week. I’m thinking that showers could be fairly numerous and with the added clouds and shower potential, our afternoon highs will stay primarily in the middle 80s. Not too shabby for the first half of August.

The SPC has a small area of standard slight risk for severe thunderstorms over the western half of Nebraska for Day 1, over the northern half of Illinois on Day 2, and over parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York on Day 3. The Day 3 marginal risk just grazes the Alabama-Tennessee line.

Rainfall across Alabama over the next five days through Monday morning is likely to be in the 1 to 1.5 inch range. While rain chances become pretty good Friday and through the weekend, it will still be in the form of showers and storms, so not everyone will see those totals just because of the hit-or-miss nature of showers.

The NHC in Miami is watching two areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic Basin. One was located in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico and the other one well out in the Central South Atlantic. Neither is these areas was expected to develop much over the next couple of days.

At the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, the chance for showers returns today and will continue through the weekend and into the start of next week. No complete washouts but showers could be fairly numerous at times. You can expect to see highs mainly in the middle 80s and lows in the upper 70s. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Own Your Summer specials now!

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS maintained a weak trough over the eastern half of the country through the 9th of August. After that and extending to the end of Week 2, the GFS was more bullish with the upper ridge nosing across the Southeast US from Bermuda. This is the kind of pattern we see pretty regularly in the summertime, and it would mean some warmer days, but it does not look like it would be excessive heat. Highs would be primarily in the middle 90s edging close to the upper 90s. Overnight lows could be fairly warm, too, with lows only dipping into the upper 70s.

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I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here first thing on Thursday morning. Enjoy another dry day before we see showers increase on Thursday and into Friday. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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