Rain Returns Tomorrow

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After a beautiful day today, clouds return quickly to Alabama, and we will continue to forecast a good chance of showers tomorrow thanks to a passing surface front. The lifted index tries to go negative during the afternoon, so a little thunder is possible in spots, but this should not be a heavy rain/severe weather event like we experienced early this week. The NAM is printing 0.28″ for Birmingham, and that sure sounds good to me. I figure with limited moisture, most places will see something in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range; I think the HPC QPF is a little overdone. The 06Z GFS hints the best chance of rain will come from about 1:00 until 9:00 p.m. Then, cooler and drier air arrives Sunday with returning sunshine.

ARCTIC BLAST NEXT WEEK: All eyes continue to be focused on the dangerously cold air over Alaska and Northwest Canada; that will break away and move down into the continental U.S. next week. Here is what we are confident in forecasting at this point:

*The coldest air will be in Alabama over the latter half of the week, Wednesday through Friday.
*Temperatures will be about 20 degrees below “normal” values; on the coldest day, which looks like Thursday, the high will be between 30 and 35, with a low between 12 and 17. Even these numbers might have to be nudged down a bit as we get closer.

What we don’t know is the degree of risk of getting some ice or snow at the end of the week. The models have been trending colder and drier in recent runs, but we really won’t have a grasp on the situation until early next week. Just keep in mind the idea is on the table, and I am not all that interested in individual model runs; the ensemble approach is the best way to handle the situation. And, remember, the models have not handled the cold air over Alaska very well, and they sure won’t handle it down here. The GFS MOS will be pretty much useless for a few days, and maybe even during the Arctic outbreak.

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I am on the road to Montgomery this morning… I will be doing a weather program at Maxwell AFB Elementary School. I will be back in the office by early afternoon and hope to have an afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

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