Cool but Warming Ahead

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Yesterday turned out to be a nice day after a wet start with most locations getting something around a quarter of an inch of rain. A nice rain, too, as it came gently soaking in well. But the sunshine yesterday was not enough to overshadow the chilly north wind. This morning temperatures are in the 30s for the most part.

And computer guidance is all over the place – model madness – so confidence even out just a couple of days is not high. But the essential element of weather forecasting is that you have to say what you think it is going to do even if you confidence is not high. So we plug along and make the forecast.

I think we stay dry for the next couple of days with clouds and some peeks of sunshine as already noted by the Skycam network. Temperatures will remain cool today with highs topping out in the lower 50s. Moderation will see highs climb to the upper 50s on Monday with mid 60s likely on Tuesday.

Tuesday is when one storm system kicks out of the Southwest and could present some serious weather issues for the area from South Central Oklahoma all the way into the Ohio River Valley area. If you have travel plans for late Monday and Tuesday, you’ll want to keep up with the latest weather forecasts to our north and northwest.

Our best rain chance comes late Tuesday and into early Wednesday. Then a brief dry out before the next rain chances late Thursday and into Friday. And the GFS should have snow lovers in a frenzy as the 540 thickness plunges to the Gulf Coast area with precipitation. But because of the wide spread of model solutions at the moment, I’m not going to buy into anything serious. Most potential changeover events don’t produce more than a light dusting, but I’m not completely convinced that all of that cold air will occur as depicted by the GFS. So for the moment, I’m holding off on venturing into winter precipitation for my forecast. Of course, this doesn’t mean that the GFS won’t be right, but I’m still going to remain cautious on jumping into that.

A surface high settles into the area on Saturday with signs of a fairly quick warm up at least to more typical values for late January.

The GFS still maintains an active pattern into voodoo land with weather systems every few days. There still appears to be an absence of any high amplitude to the pattern so nothing extreme is expected as February gets off to what may be a somewhat wet start.

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Off to the Doubletree Hotel again this morning for the second half of a photography workshop put on by the Rocky Mountain School of Photography. Only problem with workshops like this is that you get so much information in such a short time. Good stuff, but now I’ve just got to try to remember it all.

James Spann will be back at the helm on Monday, and I hope that you have a great Sunday. We are blessed and need to remember our blessings even when things get tough. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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