Temps Going The Wrong Way Today

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COLD AND WET: What an interesting weather day. We figure temperatures will drop 25 degrees around here today; from the low 60s at daybreak into the mid 30s late this afternoon. Along with the temperature free fall will come periods of rain; a band of heavy showers is moving into the Birmingham metro as I write this early this morning. We are expecting rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch today.

FLAKES? Sure, we have plenty of flakes that write for the blog, but there could be a few snow flakes over Northwest Alabama in the colder air later today. It won’t amount to much; the rain could briefly mix with snow, or even change to light snow northwest of a line from Vernon to Winfield to Haleyville and on to Athens. Surface temperatures should be generally above freezing, and the ground will be relatively warm. So, no serious travel issued are expected if snow flakes do fall. Seems like the main part of the state with some potential for light bridge icing is up around Muscle Shoals, but even there it is a marginal situation.

The precipitation will end from west to east this afternoon, and tomorrow will be dry and cool with a high close to 50.

FRIDAY COLD SHOT: A secondary blast of cold air arrives Friday. We will have a hard time reaching 40 degrees, and an icy north wind will keep the wind chill index below freezing much of the day. Then, a hard freeze is likely Friday night. We will be close to 20 degrees early Saturday, with teens for the colder valleys. The weekend will be dry with low 50s on Saturday, and mid 50s Sunday.

SNOW LOVERS BUZZING ABOUT MONDAY: You need to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the details on this; the last 3 runs of the GFS (with some support from other global models, we should note) have been consistent in showing a strong upper trough approaching on Monday, spinning up a surface low in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This low takes the classic track into the Florida panhandle, and to the Atlantic coast, followed by a run up the coast as a major nor’easter.

Could this be the snow storm we have been waiting on? It is simply too early to jump on this. Everyone here knows there is limited skill in forecasting winter storm events at both long and short ranges, so in our public forecast over on the 7 day planner page, I simply wrote “colder with a chance of rain or snow”. Forecast soundings right now show a very close call, and this kind of thing could disappear and bust your bubble very easily at this stage of the game. Just be aware the idea is on the table, and we will be watching closely in coming days.

VOODOO LAND: We actually have two similar systems that show up deeper into February, so looks like the fun and games department will be in full operation here in coming weeks.

STORM ALERT 2009: The first stop on our annual severe weather awareness tour this year is Greene County High School in Eutaw; we will be there Thursday evening at 7:00… be sure and get there early for a good seat. You can meet our entire weather team, see some great Alabama weather stories, and get some cool stuff to take home.

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I have a weather program this morning at Crestline Elementary School in Mountain Brook… I always enjoy my visits to that school. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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