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Watching Wednesday’s Weather Situation

| February 9, 2009 @ 3:29 pm | 16 Replies

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

JUST LIKE SPRING: Temperatures are generally in the 69 to 73 degree range at 2:00 this afternoon… not bad for early February in Alabama. Look for a similar today tomorrow; a few isolated showers could pop up, but those are most likely over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. Most places will enjoy a high in the low 70s with intervals of sunshine through the clouds.

TO THE WEST: SPC has upgraded the day 2 convective outlook for Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Northwest Louisiana, and Southwest Arkansas to a moderate risk; see the Weather Xtreme video for full details. This is the system that will roll into Alabama on Wednesday.

OUR SEVERE WEATHER RISK: Seems like the 12Z model runs are little more aggressive with surface based CAPE values (instability) on Wednesday; but still not overly impressive (values are under 500 j/kg). It is your classic early season case of very good dynamics, and marginal thermodynamics. I still think a low topped squall line will race across North Alabama Wednesday afternoon, generally in the 12:00 to 6:00 p.m. time frame, with potential for damaging straight line winds and a few small, spin-up tornadoes. We probably won’t have much thunder and lightning, and the line should be well to the east of here by Wednesday night. We will be watching that line closely as it moves across our state. And remember, when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: No Arctic air to deal with following Wednesday’s storms; the high Thursday will be in the 60s with ample sunshine. Should be a nice day. But, the 12Z GFS shows clouds rolling back in here Thursday night, followed by a few periods of rain on Friday with the next impulse zipping along in the fast flow across the southern U.S.

THE WEEKEND: The rain should end late Friday night, and for the moment the weekend looks dry and pleasant with upper 50s on Saturday, and low 60s Sunday. Keep in mind it is very difficult timing out waves in this kind of pattern, so this could change. But for now, the weekend looks rain-free.

THE LAND OF VOODOO: Once again, the NAO shows up strongly negative later this month, and the cold air is coming back. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you can see the 12Z GFS brings yet another snow storm across the Deep South, this time around February 24. Pure speculation, but something like this is very possible with the projected NAO phase and the upper air pattern that shows up.

STORM ALERT 2009: Again a reminder, we will be in Jasper this week at the CHS building downtown at 7:00 Thursday. We hope to see you there; be sure and come early for a good seat. I will also be doing a one-man version of Storm Alert 2009 tonight at Sylvan Springs United Methodist Church; if you live in that part of the state we would love to see you there!

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down and you can see details on tonight’s show, which will feature Dave Schwartz.

TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.

I had a great time today seeing the 3rd graders at Riverchase Elementary School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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