Active Weather Day Tomorrow

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

NICE WARM-UP TODAY: Many North Alabama communities are down in the 20s this morning; in fact our Skywatcher in Broomtown, up in Cherokee County, is reporting a frigid 17 degrees. But, we should warm up nicely today with a high close to 60 degrees. The sky will be partly sunny, although clouds will begin to thicken this afternoon.

We will mention a chance of showers tonight, and maybe some thunder. In fact, SPC has a slight risk of severe weather tonight over Northwest Alabama for storms along a northward moving warm front that might produce some hail.

SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW: I am still not convinced tomorrow will be a big severe weather day. SPC keeps all of the state in a slight severe weather risk, with higher probabilities over the southern half of the state (see the Weather Xtreme video for the probability map and other graphics). Here are some severe weather parameters for tomorrow afternoon (for Birmingham)

Surface based CAPE: 535 j/kg
Lifted index: -2.9
0 to 3 km helicity: 174 m2/s2
850 mb wind speed: 55 knots
500 mb wind speed: 62 knots
250 mb wind speed: 132 knots

Typical early season kind of event with pretty decent dynamics, but marginal thermodynamics. And, it still seems to me the best helicity will be pulling away at the time of the best instability (winds go unidirectional). But, as we all know, when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected. So, we will be watching developments closely. Rain amounts of one-half to one inch are likely. The main window for severe storms, if they develop, will be from 12:00 noon until 7:00 p.m.

COLDER ON THURSDAY: The latest GFS runs are not quite as cold, but still we figure temperatures on Thursday will hold in the 40s all day with an icy northwest wind. And, we will be well down in the 20s at daybreak Friday; most places will be in the 20 to 25 degree range, with teens for the colder valleys.

THE WEEKEND: A strong clipper will roll through Alabama on Saturday. These rarely have much moisture with them, but the GFS is actually pretty aggressive with the idea of some precipitation during the day. Low level thickness values suggest mostly light rain for the I-20 corridor, with some hint of a few snow flakes north of U.S. 278. We will deal with this in more detail after tomorrow’s event. Sunday will be cool and dry with a fresh shot of chilly air following the clipper.

NEXT WEEK: We begin to warm up on Monday, and it looks like the weather will be showery, and perhaps stormy, by Wednesday and Thursday (2/25-26).

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the notes on last night’s new episode.

TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.

STORM ALERT 2009: This week we will be at the Oxford Civic Center Thursday at 7:00… come on down and meet our weather team and learn more about Alabama weather!

Busy day today… I have weather programs at Chelsea Park Elementary in Shelby County, then at Vance Elementary in Tuscaloosa County. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

Category: Uncategorized