A Quick Check On Our Weather Situation Before 5PM

| March 10, 2018 @ 4:49 pm

Radar Check At 4:40 PM

Showers and a few heavier embedded thunderstorms continue to make their way eastward across the northern half of Central Alabama as we approach the evening hours. There is a very slow jog to the south with these, but there may be some heavier totals with the possibility of ponding to localized flash flooding due to training of the cells over the same areas.

The good news is that there are only one Severe Thunderstorm Warning issues throughout the southeast and it is for parts of Crawford, Franklin, and Sebastian counties in Arkansas. There is a marginal risk for severe storms mainly for a small portion of the southwestern parts of Central Alabama.

HRRR simulated radar solution through 8AM Sunday.

The latest HRRR model solution paints instability values over the west and southwestern parts of the area will be dropping throughout the remainder of the evening and overnight hours, and therefore any storms that move in from Mississippi will weaken and lightning activity should decrease as well. It is also showing that 0-1km Helicity values will actually increase over the southwestern parts of the area, so there may be a few low-topped supercells that form that may start rotating. Therefore, a very small risk of a brief isolated tornado may be possible in and near the Marginal Risk area.

What is interesting to see is the latest hi-res NAM solution is painting Helicity values high enough to get any cells to start rotating, along with instability values knocking on the door of 1000 J/kg stretching as far north as Blount and Jefferson counties around 5 PM. Significant tornado parameter values will be around and above 1.2, so this means that we may have a risk for severe storms for much of Central Alabama for tomorrow.

SPC only has the southern parts of the state in a Marginal Risk, but if this situation continues to show on later runs, that risk may be extended well to the north.

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About the Author ()

Scott Martin is a meteorologist, graphic artist, musician, husband, and a father. Scott is a member of the National Weather Association and the Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides accurate forecasts for many racing series across the USA.

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