Heads Up: Severe Storms Possible Later Today For Parts of Central and South Alabama

The severe weather threat for later today has increased somewhat, and I wanted to get this post up right away to alert you before you start your day. The video will be slightly delayed this morning. I will have it posted by 8:30 a.m.

We often say with spring storm systems in the South, expect the unexpected.

We have been watching a low-end severe threat across Alabama for today for several days, and it appears there may be a bit more of a threat of brief tornadoes than earlier expected for parts of West Central and South Alabama.

We have a surface low over Arkansas this morning that is a bit stronger and tracking a little further north than earlier thought. Its warm front may get a little further north than expected into the weak easterly wedge that covers Northeast Alabama this morning.

In addition to the more southeasterly winds that the close, stronger surface low will lead to, the development of a smaller low that would track across Northwest Alabama could increase low-level wind shear enough to create the threat of a couple of brief tornadoes in low topped supercells that develop, especially along the warm front.

Damaging winds to 60 mph are possible

The main threat is south of a line from Reform to Tuscaloosa to Clanton to Auburn.

The timing for the main threat will be from 2 p.m. until 10 p.m. for areas west of I-65 and from 2 p.m. until 2 a.m. for areas along and east of I-65.

A few explainer graphics…

Surface at 6 p.m. from HRRR showing stronger surface low over Mississippi and mesolow over West Alabama:

Temperatures along and south of the warm front will be near 70F:

Dewpoints south of the warm front will be near 65F.

Instability values could be approaching 1000 j/kg, which is plenty sufficient for strong updrafts:

The increased low level helicity associated with the surface lows will produce a threat of brief tornadoes. Here is the SIGTOR off the HRRR which depicts the threat area pretty well:

Here is the HRRR radar reflectivity for 6 p.m.:

Two caveats: there is lots of precipitation possible with this system, which could cool the air enough to lower the threat and any storms that develop along the Gulf Coast could cut off the moisture supply.

There is now a wind advisory for today for the northeastern quarter of the area as winds averaging 15-25 and gusting to 35-40 mph will occur.

Widespread rain will affect all of the area as well, with amounts averaging two inches and isolated three-inch amounts possible. No flash flood watch has been posted, but there is a threat of flooding for areas that get the heavier amounts. Stay alert.

Tags: exp08

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS