Understanding the Reality Behind July Hurricane Potential

DISCUSSION: As we head deeper into the month of July here in 2018 there is no question that many questions remain regarding the remainder of the 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season. Namely, one of the primary concerns is how active the 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season will be as compared to the 2017 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season. The reason for this major concern goes beyond the obvious economic and logistical concerns in the wake of such a prolific and utterly destructive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. In the wake of such a devastating 2017 hurricane season where in many places, people are still very much in the process of recovering from storms such as Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, and Hurricane Maria.  In that light, many such people living across various parts of the Caribbean as well as various parts of the Gulf Coast of the United States are on high-alert this year here in the Summer of 2018.

However, it is always important for the public to be very aware and cognizant of when and where the greatest threats are for tropical cyclone development during various parts of the year.  More specifically, during a given tropical cyclone season across the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (or any other tropical ocean basin around the world for that matter), the statistical likelihood and propensity for tropical cyclone development in various parts of different oceanic basins often changes on a week-to-week and more often on a month-to-month basis. Therefore, one should never assume where and when a tropical cyclone may occur based on previous memories from past seasons regardless of the situation at-hand.

Alternatively, rather than assuming when or where a tropical cyclone may or may not be likely to develop, one should always first look back at where tropical cyclones have formed in the past during a given calendar month.  For example, during the month of July the western and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Mexico are often more primary hotspots for tropical cyclone development. That is not to say that tropical cyclones cannot ever form outside of these regions during the month of July since 1851 which is also reflected quite well by the graphic attached above courtesy of Dr. Philip Klotzbach. Hence, it goes without saying that despite the cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures and the massive Saharan dust plume which was been recently progressing across a good portion of the Tropical Atlantic basin, this does not necessarily mean that the tropics will stay quiet for much longer.

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© 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz