Warm and Dry Memorial Day Weekend

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Drought conditions across Central Alabama remain “extreme” and there is no rain in sight for at least the next five days. The dry and warm weather conditions will make for a very nice Memorial Day Weekend. But with a rainfall deficit of over 14 inches, we really need rain. While I was camping at Paul Grist State Park this past week, my wife and I observed a very small shower on Wednesday evening which sure whet our appetite for rain. It rained very little – probably only a couple of hundredths at best – enough to dampen the dust and little more.

Air quality remains in the moderate category. With the surface high centered off to the east-northeast of Alabama for the next five days, those smoky, hazy conditions will remain with us along with dry weather.

Little change is expected in the overall weather pattern through the middle of next week. The surface high remains to the east-northeast of Central Alabama and gradually moves eastward into the Atlantic. The main westerlies and the predominant storm track remains well to our north, too. But on Wednesday and Thursday we begin to see some changes that may bring some much needed rain our way.

A trough moves into the western Great Lakes area on Wednesday and Thursday and strengthens enough to bring its influence into the southern US. The trough deepens on Friday and drags a weak cold front into the Southeast US. With that front comes the hope of some rain. Today’s GFS forecast does not seem to be as bullish as the runs were yesterday, but there is at least some hope for showers in the late Thursday and Friday time period.

The cold front pushes through on Saturday with some lowered thicknesses and slightly cooler air. Unfortunately we dry out once again. Another disturbance moving southward in the 500 millibar flow promises another shot for some rain as we enter the first full week of June, but that is into the edge of voodoo land.

And further into voodoo land the GFS shows a wet period during that first week of June ending by the weekend of June 9. Interesting to note that the GFS is also hinting at something in the western Gulf of Mexico for early June. This is not reliable, just interesting, and we’ll see if the GFS stays with that or not.

Hard to get back in the swing of things after a wonderful five days at Paul Grist State Park just north of Selma. But I have returned and will be filling in for Ashley over the weekend while she takes a little time off. I hope you can join me for the weather this evening at 6 and 10 pm. I hope you have a great Saturday – God bless.

-Brian-

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