Watching Developments To The South

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CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS TONIGHT: Most model guidance is suggesting lows somewhere between 45 and 49 degrees tonight; the record low for tomorrow (May 19) for Birmingham is 43 degrees set in 1976. Not sure we can break that, but we might “bend the vinyl”. (I don’t know how many people here remember vinyl records)

Tomorrow and Wednesday look excellent with ample sunshine; the high tomorrow will be in the mid 70s, with readings around 80 by Wednesday afternoon.

WATCHING THE GULF: Scroll down and you can see the tropical outlook issued by NHC; and be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for a variety of model output. The bottom line is that most most of the models put a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week, but they vary greatly in the intensity and placement of the low. This leads to forecast uncertainty for the Memorial Day weekend.

Can tropical systems develop in May? Certainly. When they do, however, they rarely attain hurricane strength, and the main issue is the potential for heavy rain.

The initial batch of heavy rain will be over the Florida peninsula this week, then slowly spreading north and west along with the surface low. There is no doubt for now we will need to forecast periods of rain for much of Alabama Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The heaviest rain should be closer to the coast, and the amount they see down there will all depend on the behavior of the Gulf system.

If you are beach-bound for the holiday weekend, with a destination anywhere from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, just understand the weather could be relatively wet, but I would not worry too much about it at this point since there is no real good model agreement on our system in the Gulf. We will know more as the week rolls along, and I have a vested interest since I am planning a family trip down to the Alabama Gulf Coast as well.

BEST WAY TO THE BEACHES: Thanks to those of you who have asked about “Spann’s Best Way To The Bama Beaches”… the annual article I write in late May as school is letting out. It will be posted within the next 48 hours.

VOODOO COUNTRY: The GFS continues the idea of a tropical system as June begins; the 12Z run takes it up the Atlantic coast. This, of course, is all voodoo this far in advance. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for details.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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