Late Afternoon Notes on Barry

Here are some afternoon notes on Tropical Storm Barry:

The storm remains poorly organized. Coastal radars show the broad center about 80 miles south southeast of Southwest Pass, one of the channels at the Mouth of the Mississippi River. There are lots of thunderstorms to the southwest through southeast of the center, but they are not organized around the center.

A disorganized storm cannot strengthen rapidly, which is good news. Top winds are 40 mph. Barry should strengthen to a strong tropical storm tomorrow, with top winds of 70 mph and may briefly reach category one hurricane strength before making landfall on Saturday somewhere on the Louisiana coast somewhere between Cameron and Grand Isle. The most likely track of the center appears to be around Vermillion Bay, perhaps near Morgan City.

The center will move generally northward through eastern Louisiana Saturday and Sunday and into Arkansas Sunday.

The models are in pretty good agreement with around a 975-985 mb central pressure storm. Some of the hurricane models continue to strengthen it after it is onshore Saturday. Don’t be surprised if that happens over the wet coastal areas of Louisiana.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Louisiana coastal areas from Cameron to Grand Isle. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for areas from east of Lake Charles to Slidell including New Orleans. A tropical storm watch is posted for the Mississippi Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds will reach the southern Louisiana Coast over Lower Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, and Plaquemines Parishes tomorrow morning. grand Isle and portions of southern Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes are already under mandatory evacuation orders. Places like Jean Lafitte, Lower Lafitte, Barataria, and Crown Point, as well as the East Bank of the River in Plaquemines and the West Bank south of Oakville to Venice.

Rainfall amounts over southern Louisiana west and southwest of New Orleans may run 15-20 inches. The current track should yield 10-15 inches in the New Orleans Metro. 6-10 inches of rain will fall across the western half of Mississippi. 2-4 inches will fall across western Alabama west of I-65. Amounts east of I-65 will only be in the 1-2 inch range.

Parish Officials in Jefferson and Orleans are confident that the pump systems will be able to handle the expected rainfall. A key concern is that the River is at 16 feet at the Carrollton gauge. The Mississippi is forecast to crest at 20 feet late and early Saturday morning. This would be near the top of some levee systems and there are concerns that there could be some overtopping.

Flash flood watches are in effect now for southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama, and Northwest Florida.

Tornadoes will be a threat during the daylight hours mainly to the east of where the center tracks. Eastern Louisiana and Mississippi will get the brunt of this threat, but the trheat could impact western Alabama on Sunday if the track jogs a little further eastward.

The European model has been pretty consistent for several runs and is close to the NHC official track. The GFS had been proposing a slightly more easterly track up into Mississippi which would have had a larger impact on Central Alabama’s weather. But the morning run fell back more in line with the European.

Amtrak will cease operating trains to and from New Orleans through Sunday. The Crescent that is enroute there now from Birmingham will be the last train into the Crescent City. Ferry and streetcar service has been suspended in New Orleans.

Double red flags are flying along the beautiful beaches of Alabama at places like Orange Beach and Gulf Shores. The rip current threat will be high all along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida through Sunday. It will be extreme on Saturday. The water is officially closed when there are double red flags.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical