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Dorian Stronger With Top Winds of 145 mph: Coast from Florida to Virginia on Alert

| August 31, 2019 @ 6:58 am

Good morning. Here are a few key messages concerning Hurricane Dorian this morning…

The storm is quite impressive on satellite imagery this morning and is indeed stronger with top winds of 145 mph. The central pressure is down to 944 millibars.

There was good consensus among the two major global models last night with a track west-northwestward until Tuesday morning to a point over the northern Bahamas, then a sharp right turn with a gradual recurving to the northeast. The GFS brings it to near the upper South Carolina coast and along the coast of North Carolina. The ensemble mean and operational for the Euro keeps it offshore, while the control grazes the coast near Morehead City.

The main messages:
…Dorian is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane
…The Bahamas will have a prolonged surge and hurricane wind event
…The Florida coast cannot let its guard down. Small changes in the track of the hurricane could bring hurricane conditions to the coast.
…The threat to South Carolina and North Carolina is greatly increased

The NHC forecast track is shifted a little eastward, keeping the eye off the Florida coast but bringing tropical storm force and strong tropical-storm-force winds to a long stretch of the Florida East Coast, and grazing the coast with hurricane conditions. And the forecast cone still contains much of Florida, meaning the center could end up anywhere in that cone.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the northern Bahamas which will take a terrible blow from this powerful hurricane. Watches and warnings have not been issued yet for the U.S. coast.

Here is the text of the 7 a.m. CDT intermediate advisory.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.8N 73.0W
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…944 MB…27.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
AT 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE DORIAN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST. DORIAN IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A SLOWER WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THIS TRACK, THE
CORE OF DORIAN SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL NORTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY, BE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY, AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
LATE MONDAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (225 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB (27.88 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE: A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL: DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK:

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…10 TO 15 INCHES, ISOLATED 25 INCHES.
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES…6 TO 12 INCHES,
ISOLATED 18 INCHES.
CENTRAL BAHAMAS…2 TO 4 INCHES, ISOLATED 6 INCHES.

THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF: SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECT THE EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE
BAHAMAS, THE FLORIDA EAST COAST, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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