Dorian is the Headline but No Impact Here; Alabama to be Hot and Dry All Week

Major Hurricane Dorian is the big news on this first of September, as is the case on many first of September. But this hurricane is an extreme one. Dorian has top winds of 150 mph this morning, making it a strong category four hurricane. The center is located 250 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida this morning, moving west at 6 mph.

WHERE DOES DORIAN GO? That is the $64, 000 question. There has been a considerable amount of good news since Thursday, which an innocuous cluster of storms over the Midwest set things in motion that would help to build the trough that is helping to weaken the ridge of high pressure to the north of Dorian that will allow the storm to turn to the north. The consensus is that Dorian will follow the curve of the east coast of Florida, its center remaining about 100 miles offshore until it nears the Georgia coast when the hurricane is expected to turn to the northeast and start following the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. There appears to be a high probability that the storm’s center could actually make landfall in this region, but there appears to be an equal chance that it may miss a U.S. landfall entirely. Or it could brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina as so many September and October storms have.

CAVEAT: There is a great deal of uncertainty still in this forecast only because a small forecast error could mean a huge change in the impacts along parts of the coast. The average forecast error is about 40 miles per day out into the future so that the 5 day error is around 200 miles. This could out all this no landfall talk to rest quickly.

CATEGORY FOUR MONSTER: Dorian has been flirting with cat five intensity for about 24 hours. The hurricane should maintain its extreme intensity today as it moves through the northern Bahamas, delivering a terrific blow to Abaco and Great Inagua. Nassau will be spared by the hurricane. The intensity should begin to come down slowly late tonight and Monday, but Dorian will maintain cat 4 status much of Monday. It will continue to weaken as it moves northward and should drop to category 2 intensity by Wednesday when it is east of Jacksonville. It will probably maintain that strength as it passes along the North Carolina coast.

ALABAMA IMPACTS: in a nutshell, none. Except to dry out the atmosphere, with northerly winds aloft. This means Alabama will be basically dry and hot through next weekend. The primary exception will be today as a surge of moisture from the Southeast tries to work its way deeper into the state. The best chance of showers and storms today will be southeast of I-59, and even there, that chance will be small.

EASY FORECAST: The circulation around Dorian will keep dry air feeding into Alabama and the result will be a hot and dry week. Looks for highs in the lower and middle 90s. Lows will be in the 70s until Friday morning when some cooler air will drop things back into the 60s for the weekend. Well, at least we’ve got that going for us.

VOODOO COUNTRY: Some moisture finally returns late in the forecast period, around the 15th. It may be very dry until then, unfortunately.

WEATHERREADY FEST: A FREE, FUN WEATHER PREPAREDNESS & SAFETY FESTIVAL FOR THE WHOLE FAMILY: WeatherReady Fest is coming to Huntsville this Saturday, September 7, 2019, from 10:00 am to 4:00 pm. Family-friendly games, fun learning activities, large response vehicles, and enlightening speakers will highlight this big, one-day weather festival on the campus of the University of Alabama in Huntsville. Special guests include The Weather Channel’s Nick Walker, ABC 33/40’s Chief Meteorologist James Spann, and Owlie Skywarn. Each visitor will receive their very own passport booklet. Collect stamps from exhibitor for your chance to win door prizes. Tours of UAH’s SWIRLL and the NWS Huntsville office will be available as well. Get your free timed tickets quickly as they will not last long. More information and a link to the ticket site is available on the festival website at www.weatherreadyfest.com. The tickets are free and are issued for specific hours to maximize the number of people that can visit. I hope to see you there!

GULF COAST WEATHER: An absolutely beautiful week to be on the splendid beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. It will be sunny and hot after today, for all of the coming week. Pretty good chance of showers and storms today with a trough over the Gulf, but the rest of the week will be great. Flags should be yellow all week. Highs will be in the middle 90s and lows in the middle 70s.

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel will entertain Author Willie Drye and hurricane expert Grew eg Nordstrom. We will be talking about teh Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live at live.bigbrainsmedia.com You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1985: Erratic Hurricane Elena was confounding forecasters and Gulf Coast residents on this Sunday before Labor Day. The Hurricane had threatened the central Gulf Coast on Friday, only to turn east and spend Saturday menacing the Tampa Bay area with high winds, tides, and heay rains. By lunchtime Sunday, Elena was on the move again, but this time back to the west. The storm reached its minimum pressure of 951 mb while the storm was 75 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida. Elena’s maximum reported coastal winds were over Dauphin Island, Alabama, where sustained winds of 105 miles per hour with gusts to 135 miles per hour were recorded. Other maximum gusts reported ranged from 120 miles per hour at Gulfport, Mississippi, to 92 miles per hour at Pensacola. Maximum tides of 10 feet above normal were recorded at Apalachicola, Florida, with reports of 6 to 8 feet above normal on Dauphin Island. Approximately a million people were evacuated from low lying coastal areas during the approach of Elena. This large evacuation contributed to the fact that there were no deaths in the area of landfall. The four deaths which did occur resulted from falling trees and automobile accidents. One resident died of a heart attack. Total damage estimates for Elena ranged from $1 to $1.5 billion. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

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