Tropics Showing Signs Of Life

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WESTERN CARIBBEAN: The disturbance in the western Caribbean is showing signs of a CDO (central dense overcast), and looks more organized with each hour. Conditions seem to be improving for more organization down there in coming days, and there is potential for a tropical depression to form. Most of the dynamic models move this across the tip of the Yucatan peninsula, and into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. From there, if this thing does get it’s act together, it has the choice of being influenced by the upper trough developing over the eastern U.S., which would move the system northeast, toward the Florida peninsula, and then into the Atlantic. Or, it the trough misses the system it could hang around the southern Gulf, ultimately moving toward either the Gulf coast of Texas or Mexico. The BAM runs are suggesting the latter scenario is most likely; just too early to tell since it is not organized at this point. We will be watching over the weekend.

THE ALABAMA STORY: Our weather won’t change much tomorrow; hot and hazy with a high in the low to mid 90s, and some risk of widely scattered afternoon showers and storms. We still expect a general increase in the number of showers and storms around here late Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday in response to a surface boundary moving through, helped along by the upper trough over the eastern U.S. The 12Z GFS is not quite a bullish on rain around here, but any decent surface boundary around here in late June often brings a nice batch of showers and storms. Still a good chance we stay below 90 on Monday due to cloudy periods and showers.

The rest of next week, Tuesday through Friday, looks dry with lower humidity and slightly cooler nights; cooler spots across North Alabama might even visit the upper 50s by daybreak Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be around 90.

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Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video updates over the weekend… my next one will be posted bright and early Monday morning; by 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!

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