Some Hail Possible Over The Northwestern Parts Of Alabama Over The Next Few Hours

Latest Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…

Areas affected…Far southeast Arkansas…southwest
Tennessee…northern Mississippi…northern Alabama

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…Mainly small hail, with a couple stones over 1 inch in diameter, will be possible with elevated storms over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION…Discrete cells have recently developed and intensified within a low-level WAA advection regime, atop a relatively stable boundary layer. Modest forcing for ascent, combined with very strong deep-layer shear (bulk effective shear values exceeding 50 knots) has allowed for some of the stronger cores to become organized and achieve very modest mid-level rotation. Nonetheless, the ambient environment is weakly buoyant, with poor lapse rates throughout the troposphere and only modest 925-850 mb moisture driving MUCAPE values that barely exceed 500 J/kg. While current storm structures may promote hail development, the weak mid-level lapse rates and aforementioned buoyancy suggest that most hail will be relatively small in nature, though a couple stones may briefly exceed 1 inch in diameter in the strongest, most organized storms.

The very sparse and brief nature of the severe hail threat precludes
a WW issuance.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather