A Watch Is Possible For Southern Parts Of Central Alabama

Here is the latest Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…

SUMMARY…
The threat for damaging downburst winds and brief tornadoes will continue across southeast MS and southern AL this morning. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION…
12Z (7:00 am) surface analysis places a frontal low just north of NMM along the central MS/AL. A warm front extends southwestward from this low into the western FL Panhandle and then back east-northeastward across southern GA. Air mass south of this warm front is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s, dewpoints in the mid-60s, and modest instability (i.e. MLCAPE 500-800 J/kg). 7:00 am NWS New Orleans sounding sampled this air mass well and shows poor lapse rates mitigating buoyancy in an otherwise warm and moist environment.

Regional radar imagery shows a convective line extending from central AL southwestward into southwest MS ahead of a cold front moving through the region. Portions of this line in MS have shown some modest intensification over the past hour or so as a result of the more favorable thermodynamic environment. General expectation is for this convective line to continue eastward with theta-e advection persisting ahead of it, allowing for continued surface-based development. Moderate to strong low/mid-level flow will also remain co-located with the convective line, supporting enough low-level shear for some updraft organization. As such, the threat for damaging downburst winds and brief tornadoes will continue. Convective trends will be monitored throughout the morning for potential watch issuance.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather