Isolated Damaging Wind Gusts & Hail Possible Southeast Of The Current Severe T-Storm Watch

Here is the latest Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center…

SUMMARY…
Recent development southeast of the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch should pose a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and hail through the early evening hours. A severe weather watch issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION…
A couple of clusters/linear segments were currently accelerating southeastward near/east of WW 88 currently and extend from near CSG to near MCN. Additionally, mostly sub-severe convection has increased downstream across the discussion area. This convection was in a moderately unstable environment characterized by marginally strong lapse rates aloft (7-7.5 deg C/km) atop near 70F surface dewpoints, resulting in around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Deep shear also supports storm organization, even though low-level shear is relatively weak.

Current thinking is that any sustained severe threat in the discussion area should be tied to any convection that can grow upscale into linear segments and produce mature cold pools. This process is most likely occurring with a mature bow echo migrating into Chattahooche/Stewart counties in Georgia. It is a bit less certain that this type of organization will materialize with convection near/west of ABY at the current time. With the onset of nocturnal boundary layer cooling/stabilization expected over the next few hours, it is uncertain that any severe threat will become concentrated enough for a WW issuance. Trends will continue to be monitored.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather