A Look at the Overnight Severe Weather Threat

The good news is that the storms over Tennessee have decreased some on coverage and intensity.

The storms between Nashville and Cookeville still have severe thunderstorm warnings on them, as does the storm southeast of Memphis. It is passing into northern Mississippi now and will move toward Corinth.

The storm in northern Mississippi will pass near Boonville and approach Northwest Alabama’s Franklin, Colbert, and Lauderdale Counties around 12:30.

But in between, the storms have decreased dramatically in intensity and coverage.

The storm near Dyersburg, Tennessee north of Memphis is still severe.

But we can’t let our guard down. The HRRR model indicates that the storms will reintensify after midnight as they approach the northern border of Alabama. And the atmosphere over North and Central Alabama will be unstable, with CAPE values running 2,000-2,200 joules/kg. The bulk shear is strong, with values running 50-55 knots. This will allow the storms to maintain their organization.

If they hold together or redevelop, any storms will have the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a chance of an isolated tornado.

Here is the timing and potential intensity of the storms based on the HRRR model’s output:

Simulated reflectivity at 2 a.m.:

And at 3 a.m.:

At 5 a.m., the storms are moving into the Birmingham Metro:

They weaken after passing I-20:

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for Alabama’s Tennessee Valley until 6 a.m.

Make sure you have your sources for severe weather warnings on overnight, and that they will wake you up.

Check the blog for frequent updates throughout the night and early morning.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather