First Advisory on Tropical Depression Seven

Spaghetti models showing some of the possible paths of TD 7/potential TS

Tropical depression seven has formed this afternoon about 1400 miles East of the Windward Islands, about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

The wind shear values are quite favorable for further development. Strengthening is likely for a couple of days before it runs into dry air. It could become a tropical storm tonight. It is a small system and is bringing a pocket of moisture with it and that may help it fight off the dry air.

The GFS now forecasts a tropical storm impact on Barbados and the southern Lesser Antilles during Friday night and Saturday morning. Beyond this, the GFS model forecasts weakening into a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean by late this weekend.

It could be a hurricane by then.

We are watching a system over the southeastern Gulf that could become a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the Texas coast late in the week as well. the tropics are heating up.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…9.8N 40.4W
ABOUT 1185 MI…1905 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1420 MI…2285 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 40.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).
A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is
expected tonight and Wednesday, and that motion should continue
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical