Gonzalo Continues to Struggle; Forecast to Bring Heavy Rain & Gusty Winds to the Southern Windward Islands
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…10.0N 55.6W
ABOUT 390 MI…625 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 55.6 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Gonzalo’s maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to dissipate early next week.
Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 MB (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday.
RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
About the Author (Author Profile)
Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.Subscribe
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