Special Updated Advisory on Hurricane Isaias at 11:00 pm

| July 30, 2020 @ 11:04 pm

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT…0400 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…20.4N 72.2W
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula on Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1200 AM EDT (0400 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 72.2 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas overnight. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the central and northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge will raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos tonight and early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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