Laura Continues to Strengthen as Life-Threatening Flash Flooding May Be Occurring Over Cuba & The Dominican Republic

NHC UPDATE SUMMARY OF 4:00 PM CDT INFORMATION

LOCATION…19.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI…350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* Inagua and the Ragged Islands in southeastern Bahamas
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 MB (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical