Dry Through Tomorrow

**No Weather Xtreme video with this discussion**

Here is a quick discussion after a review of the 00Z model data; I am speaking in Tuscaloosa at 6:00 a.m., so this will take the place of the regular morning discussion. I will get back on track with the afternoon discussion and Weather Xtreme video later today.

DRY AIR IN PLACE: Looks like dry air will keep the northern half of the state rain-free through tomorrow, with mostly sunny days and air nights. The high both days will be close to 90 degrees.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture slowly returns for the weekend, and we will bring back the chance of a few scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. The chance of any one spot getting wet is one in three; otherwise look for partly sunny days with highs in the 89 to 92 degree range. That type of weather, very common for August, will continue into the first part of next week.

WATCHING THE TROPICS: TD2 out in the East Atlantic is still TD2 as I write this; it weakened last night and now in a struggle to survive due to marginal sea surface temperatures and dry air near the system. There is some chance it could weaken to a tropical wave, but if it can survive for a few days it has a chance of becoming a tropical storm early next week north of the Virgin islands. The GFS continues the idea of this moving through the Bahamas, followed by a northward turn before reaching Florida, and then a threat to the middle Atlantic coast in about a week or so. This, of course, is pure speculation since there is no skill in forecasting a tropical cyclone more than five days in advance. (We did note the 18Z GFS yesterday brought the system into the Gulf of Mexico, with a landfall on the Louisiana coast, but that run was an outlier)

Another strong wave is behind TD 2 in the far East Atlantic; it has some chance of becoming a tropical depression later today, but it will have the same issues (dry air, marginal SSTs) as TD 2 in the short term.

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Again, I will be back on schedule with the next Weather Xtreme video and blog discussion here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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