Weather Xtreme: The Tropics Taking Center Stage as a Potential Tropical Storm Will Impact Portions of the Gulf Coast

| September 12, 2020 @ 7:00 am

Deeper moisture and an easterly wave will be located just to our west near the Mississippi River, but with that in close proximity to Central Alabama, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will also be possible during the morning as well, but chances will increase with the rising temperatures. Highs will be in the lower 90s.

At this point, we could see a lessening in our chance for showers and storms on Sunday with the approach of TD-19, but rain chances will remain elevated across the area mainly for the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the lower 90s.

Tropical moisture will begin moving into Central Alabama from the south along with the outer rain bands of TD-19 on Monday. Showers and storms will be likely mainly over the southern half of the area through much of the day, but those will eventually move northward. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

As TD-19 makes landfall on the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coast on Tuesday, we’ll continue to have tropical showers and storms across Central Alabama. We may have to watch for some stronger cells within those outer bands that may start to rotate and potentially drop a quick spin-up tornado, but it is too early to be certain on that for now. Highs will be in the lower to mid-80s.

On Wednesday, the remnants of TD-19 will be pulled eastward across Central Alabama bringing the greater potential for tropical showers and storms. Once again, it looks like we may have to watch closely for and rotating cells throughout the day. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

The remnants of TD-19 will finally be making their way into Georgia on Thursday, but tropical showers and storms will remain likely throughout the day across Central Alabama. If any severe weather occurs, it looks to be confined to the eastern parts of the area throughout the day. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

While showers and thunderstorms will remain possible on Friday, much of the tropical moisture will be out of the area leaving us with our standard chances for the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the mid-80s.

An area of showers and thunderstorms may develop a little more as it moves westward and southwestward over the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week, but is only given a small chance of developing into a depression within the next 5 days.

Another disturbance is located just off the coast of Africa that may possibly become a depression during the next few days, but conditions will become unfavorable for any further development by Tuesday.

We also have Invest 95L over the east-central parts of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that will likely become a depression over the next couple of days. It is projected to move generally westward for at least the next 5 days. Most of the ensemble members have it curving to the northwest well before reaching the Leeward Islands.

We also have Rene out there in the middle of the Atlantic struggling to stay at tropical storm strength. Winds are currently at 40 MPH and are expected to weaken into a depression by early Monday morning. We’ll have to watch and see what happens after the next 5 days, but for now, he stays out to see bothering the fishes.

Tropical Storm Paulette is on a path toward Bermuda currently packing winds at 70 MPH and moving to the northwest at 16 MPH. Additional strengthening is very likely and Paulette should become a hurricane later today. The center of Paulette is expected to move very close to Bermuda on Sunday night and Monday. Fortunately, Paulette will be out of there rather quickly and moving back out to open waters late Monday, only expected to drop 2-4 inches of rain on the island. Paulette is forecast to be a category 2 hurricane with 100 MPH winds as it passes over Bermuda.

Then we get to the big story… Tropical Depression 19. Currently, maximum sustained winds are at 35 MPH as the center is located just 35 miles to the west-southwest of Miami, Florida. 19 is expected to move out over the Gulf of Mexico later today and will gradually start to intensify into a tropical storm, gaining the name, Sally. The current forecast track has 19 moving to the west-northwest, passing very close to the Alabama Gulf Coast before making landfall very near the Louisiana/Mississippi state line.

Tropical storm watches are up for portions of the western Florida Gulf Coast and tropical storm conditions are likely by Sunday night in the watch locations. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with isolated spots reaching 6 inches are expected across the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday through Tuesday morning. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents can be expected as well.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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