A Few Quick Notes on TD 19, Sally to Be

The center of tropical depression 19 appears to have jogged or reformed a little to the southwest this morning near the southwestern tip of Florida near Flamingo, or Cape Sable, just north of Marathon in the Florida Keys.

Marathon is reporting a west wind at 14 gusting to 21 knots. Their pressure is 1006 mb. The 7 a.m. advisory put the central pressure at 1004 mb. There are no other first-order reporting stations close to the center.

I saw a report of 11 inches of rain at Islamorada.

Winds are gusting as high to over tropical storm force in the feeder bands over South Florida. A mesonet station 7 miles SSE of Key Biscayne near Miami just reported a 47 mph wind gust.

The center will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico in the next few hours. Wind shear is light, less than 10 knots. There is warm water, and even some high oceanic heat content water just to its west, so the more southerly and westerly track may carry it over that more high octane fuel. Strengthening will begin today and a lot of the model guidance now makes what will eventually become Sally a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Some of the guidance this morning is even suggesting it might be a category two hurricane at landfall.

This system will bring a big heavy rainfall threat to the Gulf coast. There are some indications too that it could stall after landfall as steering currents weaken, which could push rainfall totals well past these officially forecast by the Weather Prediction Center.

As you can see, we could be in for some decent rains up into Central Alabama as well.

Recon will be in the storm starting later this morning.

New forecast advisory package out shortly. Continuous updates on 19/Sally, and a look at Paulette’s effects on Bermuda as well as a look back at a famous hurricane that hit the Alabama coast 41 years ago today, all on AlabamaWX.com.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical