Tropical Depression 25 Forms Over the Northwest Caribbean Sea

SUMMARY AS OF 10:00 AM

LOCATION…18.1N 84.7W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

KEY MESSAGES

The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba, and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas.

The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

WATCHES & WARNINGS

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
• Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
• South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya
• West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam

DISCUSSION & HAZARDS

As of 10:00 am, the center of newly formed TD-25 is located about 220 miles to the southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph, and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 MB (29.68 inches).

TD-25 is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by early Saturday and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday.

Info from the 10:00 am update from the National Hurricane Center.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical