Hurricane Warnings Issued for Portions of the Yucatan Peninsula as Gamma Approaches

SUMMARY AS OF 10:00 AM

LOCATION…20.0N 87.3W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB…29.03 INCHES

KEY MESSAGES

Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

Gamma is very near hurricane strength and will be near or at hurricane intensity when the center moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula later today. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm conditions are already occurring. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and on Sunday.

WATCHES & WARNINGS

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
* North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

DISCUSSION & HAZARDS

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 87.3 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gamma is likely to be near or at hurricane strength when it makes landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A station at Cancun, Mexico, reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) within the past few hours. A station at Xcaret Park near Playa del Carmen recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 983 MB (29.03 inches).

Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulations of 4-6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Info from the 10:00 am update from the National Hurricane Center.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical