Latest on #26/Delta as of 9:30 p.m.

| October 4, 2020 @ 9:32 pm

The convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 26 is increasing tonight and the system will likely become a tropical depression and eventually Tropical Storm Delta by Monday.

There is drier air to the north of the system, but the center of PTC 26 seems to be ensconced in moist air for now.

The oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, where the storm will track, is very high, and a period of rapid intensification is possible late on Monday.

The storm should cross the western tip of Cuba Tuesday night as at least a category one hurricane. It will proceed to the central Gulf by Wednesday night and start to turn to the north ahead of an approaching trough. Top winds are expected to be 90 mph by then, and of course, could be stronger. There could be some weakening as the storm approaches the coast and moves over cooler water, but the upper wind setup could arrest that weakening trend, and we could even see strengthening in the hours before landfall, like with Sally.

Landfall should be somewhere on the coat between Lake Charles, LA, and Pensacola on Friday, but most likely between Morgan City and Mobile.

Here is all of the computer track guidance:

Here is the latest intensity guidance:

The system will bring dangerous winds, deadly storm surge, and flooding rains to a large part of the Gulf Coast. Needless to say, all interests along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Northwest Florida need to pay close attention to the latest information on this system through the week ahead.

It may very well bring rain, wind, and possibly tornadoes to interior parts of Alabama as well Friday and Saturday.

We will have the latest analysis and updates here on AlabamaWX.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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