Late Evening Look at Hurricane Delta: Top Winds 130 mph

The Hurricane Hunters tonight are not finding the really strong winds that they saw earlier today during the rapid intensification phase. It has been curious that the central pressure has always been out of sync with the maximum winds. The central pressure all day has been in the 950s and now 960s, which is more in line with a category 3 hurricane than a cat 4.

Top winds are now 130 according to the NHC.

The hurricane had a pinhole eye, which typically can be accompanied by wide fluctuations in intensity. We may be seeing an eyewall forming at a wider radius in a restructuring process.

The storm is still over very warm water, and not only that but warm water to a really deep depth. This means that the storm doesn’t upwell cooler water from below when the water is warm to a greater depth. The warm is warm into the southern Gulf, so the hurricane will be able to re-strengthen as it moves away from the Yucatan.

Wind shear is low now and is expected to become even lower over the southern Gulf. This will also assist with the re-intensification process.

The wind field with Hurricane Delta will be expanding, so the impacts will be felt over a wide area when the storm reaches the Gulf Coast with life-threatening surge and destructive winds as well as flooding rains. And the flooding rains will extend well inland.

There is pretty good agreement among the models about the landfall on the Louisiana coast. The Euro is still a little west of the GFS, but everything else is pretty much in consensus. The storm will be in the process of turning northeast when it makes landfall and will travel up into Central Mississippi Saturday morning and will be into the northwest part of Alabama by Sunday morning.

We will have frequent updates right on through the weekend. James will have a complete look at the situation tomorrow morning.

Here is the 10 p.m. Advisory:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020

…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DELTA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…
…EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…19.5N 85.1W
ABOUT 135 MI…220 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 85.1 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the
next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is
expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over
the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, be over the
southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach
the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected
before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early
Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over
the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the
hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently measured a sustained wind of
65 mph (104 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area later tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical
storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the
central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash,
urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually
spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United
States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical