Eta Is Back to Tropical Storm Status, Recon Finds it is Strengthening

Tropical Storm Eta is strengthening again this morning. It regained tropical storm strength at 9 a.m. with winds of 40 mph, but Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are finding that the storm is much stronger, with flight-level winds of 59 knots or around 60 mph when adjusted for altitude. Surface winds were measured at 55 knots or 63 mph.

The NHC issued a Tropical Cyclone Update:

Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND STRONGER WINDS
IN ETA…

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds in Eta have increased to 50 mph.
The plane is still investigating Eta at this time. If it finds
stronger winds, a special advisory may be required during the next
hour or two.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EST…1600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

Satellite imagery shows a much better-organized storm with deep thunderstorms.

Winds at Grand Cayman, about 45 miles to the southeast of the center, have reached as high as 40 mph. The wind sensor was just lost at Grand Cayman International however after winds shifted from east southeast to southwest.

The storm is moving northeast at 17 mph and that motion will continue through Sunday morning, but then it is expected to turn back to the north and then the northwest as an upper-level low-pressure system forms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It will cross Cuba tonight and emerge over the open waters between Cuba and the Bahamas early Sunday.

The waters of the western Caribbean are warm (29C) and oceanic heat content is high. So additional strengthening is possible today and Eta may become a hurricane before crossing Cuba.

The Caymans will experience tropical storm conditions into this evening. Tropical storm and perhaps hurricane conditions may impact Central Cuba overnight tonight into early Sunday.

The storm will spend the day Sunday curving toward South Florida. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content are lower north of Cuba, but the storm should be able to maintain intensity and should be a strong tropical storm or hurricane when it approaches the Upper Keys early Monday morning. It will pass into the southeastern Gulf during the day on Monday and turn northward, parallelling the West Coast of Florida on Tuesday. Don’t be shocked if it does some crazy loop in the southeastern Gulf, as hinted by the main global models.

There is a good chance that it will be in the process of becoming a subtropical storm or a hybrid subtropical/tropical storm at that time. And it should be weakening. Top winds are expected to decrease to 45 mph by Tuesday night.

Most of the global models carry it inland north of Tampa on the West Coast of Florida early Wednesday.

GULF COAST IMPACTS
The effects of Eta along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida will be minimal. Winds will increase to 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph along the beaches starting Monday night through Tuesday, but they should decrease Wednesday. Some cloudiness will work its way into the Panama City area by late Tuesday into Wednesday, but rain should stay southeast of the PC area. The rip current risk should remain moderate for most areas, except St. Joe and Appalachicola, which will see a high rip current risk by Tuesday night into Wednesday.

CENTRAL ALABAMA IMPACTS
Winds will become gusty out of the east by tonight and continuing through Monday across much of Alabama as the pressure gradient increase between the surface low that is Eta and high pressure to the north. A few light showers could reach into eastern and southeastern Alabama Tuesday and Tuesday night, but rainfall amounts will be light.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical