A Little Light Rain?

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EASTERLY FLOW: We actually have a tricky little forecast for the mid-week period, but generally benign weather is the story for the rest of the week and the weekend.

The low level easterly flow will bring clouds into Alabama late tonight, and the mid-week period could be generally cloudy, with some risk of scattered light rain. The NAM is printing 0.35″ of rain in Birmingham during the next 84 hours, while the GFS is drier with 0.08″. Temperatures will also, most likely, be lower than MOS guidance, with highs only in the 70s possible over the eastern third of the state, with low 80s elsewhere.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The easterly flow abates late in the week, and the weather still looks generally dry Thursday through Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s. An isolated shower or two could show up along the way, but the chance of wet weather for any one spot looks very small at this point.

WATCHING THE GULF: Let’s keep an eye on the old front in the northern Gulf of Mexico; sometimes tropical systems can spin up just offshore in these situations. There is a good bit of convection down that way this afternoon. We will be watching.

TROPICS: Hurricane Jimena in the eastern Pacific is now packing sustained winds of 150 mph; it is expected to make landfall on the southwest coast of the Baja Peninsula at daybreak Wednesday as a category three hurricane. Then, the circulation is forecast to nearly stall over the northern Gulf of California, setting the stage for a big time flood event; the NCEP QPF graphic is showing 21 inches of rain for that part of the world. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

Our wave east of the Leeward Islands should be upgraded to a tropical depression any time, and ultimately to Tropical Storm Erika status. Steering currents are collapsing in this region, and the system won’t move quickly. It will pass north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and it remains to be seen if Erika will recurve harmlessly into the open Atlantic, or become a threat to the Atlantic coast of the U.S. Plenty of time to watch this one with the slow forward motion.

BUH BYE AUGUST: We note the average high this month is 87.70, with an average low of 69.87. Not bad at all for August… and it looks like the below average temperatures will continue as September begins.

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