SPC Issues Mesoscale Discussion on Wintry Precipitation Threat

| February 17, 2021 @ 1:26 pm

Areas affected…northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and far southern Kentucky

Concerning…Heavy snow

SUMMARY… Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest. 1″ per hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION… Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN over the past hour. The precipitation itself is likely tied to isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where 50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow sub-freezing airmass. The precipitation itself is outpacing most model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or so. Snow should be the dominant precip type, though point forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support occasional mixing with sleet at times.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Winter Weather

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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