Wet and Soggy

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As we edge closer to the driest month of the year, October, we seem headed for a rather wet week in our immediate future. Today, while it is expected to be cloudy much of the day with only a peek at the sun in a few spots, rain chances are fairly low compared to the next five to six days. Any showers that develop today should be somewhat isolated with the main rain threat along and just inland from the immediate Gulf Coast. Clouds will keep temperatures in the lower 80s.

The culprit is a weak low pressure area along an old frontal boundary or stationary front lying along the Gulf Coast. There are additional contributing factors to keeping us wet. The first is that nothing is expected to move much over the next four or five days. Also we are in an extremely moist air mass with precipitable water values running at or above 2 inches. So with this combination of factors, I really expect us to remain quite wet through at least mid week. Rainfall amounts are likely to range from 1 to 3 inches with the lesser amounts over North Alabama increasing as you go south. In fact, over South Alabama and Northwest Florida I would not be surprised to see some spots get 3 to 5 inches over the next five days.

The rain and clouds should also keep temperatures below seasonal values with highs of about 78 to 82 for most days and lows only dropping to near 70.

By the end of the week, the GFS is finally suggesting a more zonal flow aloft which should reduce our rain chances, but I am certainly not ready to remove all chances of showers.

Looking further a field, the long range GFS suggests another wet period around the 23rd and 24th but a strong northwesterly flow by the 27th should bring some very nice fall weather. Just remember this is voodoo so expect it to change.

The tropics are a bit busier. Fred is still out there – and I’m about to agree with James comment the other day that Fred may be around until Christmas. Another wave moving off the African coast bears watching. Fred is quite weak but is now expect to take a more westerly track over the next five days posing a potential threat to Bermuda. The broad low pressure especially in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is not expected to develop into an organized tropical system, however, it does have the potential for helping parts of Texas with their drought and bringing a lot of rain for the area from Texas to Georgia. As I noted above, this will be good timing as we head toward the climatologically driest month of the year in Alabama.

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I hope you have a great Saturday. I’m still at Mt. Cheaha doing volunteer work with the state park. I’m hoping my forecast is on the money so we can get some painting jobs completed before it turns really wet. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so tomorrow morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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