Eyes On Developments Next Week

The Tuesday afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

I know for many people this will be the last day of the normal schedule until early next week, so we will do our best to focus on developments for next week.

In the short term, the forecast is pretty much a no brainer through the weekend, with mostly sunny days, clear nights, and a gradual warming trend. We should be at or below freezing by daybreak tomorrow, but we will rise to near 60 tomorrow, and into the mid to upper 60s on Thanksgiving day as the warm-up continues. The latest guidance from the GFS has us up in the low 70s on Friday and Saturday. Great weather for the Thanksgiving holiday for much of the nation; the trouble spots will be along the mid-Atlantic coast, where wind and rain will continue from Charleston northward to Chesapeake Bay, and in the Pacific Northwest where the rain will continue to fall on Portland and Seattle.

NEXT WEEK: Both SPC and CPC have a severe thunderstorm risk defined next week from the eastern part of Texas, eastward through the Deep South into Alabama. The GFS suggests the greatest risk of strong to severe storms will come Tuesday, possibly into Tuesday night. The European (ECMWF) continues to suggest the system will hold off until later in the week, and it has also backed off a bit on the intensity and southern extent.

The 12Z GFS shows a good chance of rain and strong storms Tuesday and Tuesday night, with cooler air to follow on Wednesday. Then, another strong impulse moves down into the big upper trough, spinning up a surface storm in the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, which moves northeast to a point east of Charleston on Friday (December 1). Following that storm, much colder air rolls into Alabama. And, of course, the snow lovers must be chomping at the bits over the idea of a Gulf of Mexico storm in the cold weather season.

But, that is only the 12Z GFS. Lets don’t get hung up on any one specific idea or model run until Friday and Saturday, when we get well within our seven day time frame. The simple message is that a major storm system, possibly in two parts, will impact Alabama next week with some risk of strong to severe storms, followed by a sharp change to colder weather.

Sorry I am a bit late today… lots of interruptions here the ole weather office today as folks are wanting to tie up loose ends before heading out for Thanksgiving.

I will be doing just one Weather Xtreme video tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday as we get into the holiday mode… it should be posted by 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. If you are headed out of town, be safe!

Category: Pre-November 2010 Posts