1 pm Update: Center of Elsa Passing to the South of the Haitian Peninsula

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…17.3N 73.0W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM WSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 255 MI…410 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 73.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. Port Au Prince, Haiti, recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Dominican Republic, are expected on Jamaica and over eastern Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…

Southern coast of Cuba…3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola…2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical