4 pm Update: Storm Surge Watch Issued for Parts of the West Coast of Florida

SUMMARY OF 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…19.8N 77.9W
ABOUT 15 MI…20 KM W OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
ABOUT 110 MI…180 KM S OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Jamaica
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote River

FORECAST DISCUSSION & OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 77.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near or over eastern Cuba this evening, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…

* Southern coast of Cuba…3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay…2 to 4 ft
* Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…1 to 3 ft
* Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay…1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba through Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands through Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida Monday night and Tuesday.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical