10pm Update: Elsa is a Little Stronger as it Approaches Central Cuba

SUMMARY OF 10 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…20.6N 79.2W
ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI…440 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote River

FORECAST DISCUSSION & OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and radars from Pilan and Camaguey, Cuba, near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 79.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will approach south-central Cuba late tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…

Southern coast of Cuba…3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay…2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay…1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches are expected through tonight. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba tonight into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands tonight into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida Monday night and Tuesday.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical