1 pm Update: Elsa Now Forecast to Become a Hurricane Before Landfall

SUMMARY OF 1 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
Location… 25.4 N, 83.0 W
About 95 MI…150 KM NW of Key West Florida
About 180 MI…295 KM S of Tampa Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds… 70 MPH
Present Movement… N at 9 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure… 1000 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a generally northward motion is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast on Wednesday and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor…2 to 4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas…1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass…1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC…1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula…3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida…2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia… 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

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Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical