Sun and Storms

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

Scroll down and see an interesting series of pictures from Brandon Harris, who dealt with one of the big storms across Northeast Alabama yesterday afternoon. We have really had a rash of wet microbursts in the last five days; this is “wet microburst season” in Alabama, and they can offer up some pretty significant damage in small areas. Seems like the most serious damage yesterday was across parts of Cleburne and Randolph counties; I-20 was blocked for a while near Heflin due to debris across the highway.

Providing specific warnings for wet microbursts is very hard to do because of their short term nature, and the fact that they are usually very isolated. On days when they happen we usually have lots of dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere (which can help downdraft momentum in storms), and steep lapse rates (the amount of cooling with altitude). We don’t get the morning upper air data until around 8:00 a.m., but I would not be shocked if we see more of the same today.

Of course, this is summer and the storms remain scattered; yesterday many Alabama neighborhoods were left high and dry, while some spots really got soaked. A little over four inches of rain fell near Fort Payne yesterday, producing flash flooding.

THE WEEK AHEAD: Keep in mind the GFS really hasn’t done a stellar job in recent days, and I don’t trust model output too much this week. Having said that, both the NAM and the GFS are forecasting highs in the mid 80s for the most part this week… seems like they forgot this is July in Alabama. We do note, however, very cool air over the northeast part of the nation, and some of that will drop southward down the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains in coming days. I seriously doubt if any of it reaches Alabama, however.

But, dewpoints are in the mid 50s as far south as Nashville this morning, and some of that drier air could slip into far northeast Alabama during the next 36 hours, meaning showers and storms could be hard to find for places like Gadsden, Fort Payne, and Scottsboro through mid-week.

For North-Central Alabama (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston), we will mention scattered showers and storms again today, with the storms becoming widely scattered tomorrow and Wednesday with the slightly drier air easing in here from the north on those days. Highs this week in our forecast will stay in the 90s, as we have rejected the MOS products from the models.

Late in the week and over the coming weekend, another surface boundary approaches from the north, which might bring an increase in the number of showers and storms again.

LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to show the most intense heat in the southwest part of the nation, and a persistent upper trough over the Northeast U.S. This would mean rainfall and temperatures around here near normal, and an occasional front approaching from the north enhancing the coverage of showers and storms from time to time.

TROPICS: All remains quiet this morning across the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through mid-week.

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WEATHER BRAINS: We will be recording a new WeatherBrains podcast tonight… it will be posted by early tomorrow morning. You can listen to previous episodes on the WeatherBrains web site, or on iTunes.

I sure enjoyed my trip to Lineville last night; I spoke at the Lineville Baptist Church. We had a big fish fry before the service, and the place was packed. Some very friendly people in Clay County, you know. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy your Monday!

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